Over very long periods, U.S. stocks have been the primary growth engine. From 1985 to 2025, $100 in the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) grew into several thousand dollars, reflecting a double-digit annualized return. Over roughly the same period, the average price of gold rose more slowly in percentage terms, but still multiplied many times over, compounding at a single-digit rate.

So yes—over 40 years, stocks have been the clear winner for growth. That’s exactly why your core allocation should still be diversified equities.

But the story changes when you look at stress periods, which is really where gold and silver earn their keep.

When Gold Underperformed

There have been long stretches where holding too much gold was painful:

• Mid-1980s through late 1990s:Equities boomed, while gold mostly moved sideways or down in real terms. The 1985–1999 era is a classic case of stocks leaving gold in the dust.
• 2011–2015:After spiking around the 2008–2011 crisis, gold corrected and went through a multi-year slump, while the post-crisis bull market in stocks gained momentum.

If you held 100% gold, these periods felt awful. But if you held 5%–15%, they were simply quiet years for one small slice of your portfolio while the rest did the heavy lifting.

When Gold (and Silver) Shined

Then there are the environments where gold (and often silver) dramatically outpaced stocks:

• 2000–2010:The S&P 500 produced roughly flat returns in the “lost decade” for stocks, while gold more than tripled in price.
• The early 2000s through mid-2010s:Over this span, gold and silver saw powerful bull markets that offset weak or volatile equity markets.
• 2024 and into 2025:Gold delivered a standout year and strong follow-through, outpacing many traditional asset classes at a time when investors were nervous about inflation, debt, and geopolitics.

That’s exactly what you want from a hedge: it doesn’t always win—but it tends to win when the main engine is sputtering.

The Last Two Years: Gold & Silver Doing Their Job

Zoom in to the recent environment: high inflation, record public debt, geopolitical risk, and concern about an AI-driven equity bubble.

Over roughly the last two years, the S&P 500 has delivered strong gains, supported by a powerful rally in large technology and growth names. At the same time, gold has quietly kept pace and, in certain windows, outperformed, especially during periods when inflation fear or recession concern dominated the headlines. Silver, with its combination of monetary and industrial roles, has been even more explosive at times, surging on growing demand from solar, electric vehicles, and other green technologies, as well as investor interest.

In plain English: recently, gold and especially silver have strongly validated their purpose. While stocks have done well, precious metals have also delivered impressive returns exactly when investors were most worried about inflation, debt, and monetary policy. That doesn’t mean you abandon equities. It means that a modest gold/silver sleeve can meaningfully cushion your portfolio when the macro picture darkens.

Why 5%–15% in Gold & Silver Is a “Sweet Spot”

You don’t need to be a “gold bug” to benefit from precious metals. Many mainstream institutions and respected investors advocate a small, disciplined allocation rather than an all-or-nothing bet.

Research from industry groups and asset managers has consistently shown that allocating a relatively small portion of a portfolio—often in the range of 5–15%—to gold can improve diversification, reduce volatility, and in many cases enhance risk-adjusted returns. Some specialists in the precious-metals space suggest that an allocation around 10–15% to gold and gold-related holdings is suitable for investors particularly concerned about inflation, currency debasement, or systemic risk. Other professional portfolio managers suggest a more conservative band of about 5–10% for most long-term investors as a practical hedge that doesn’t dominate the portfolio.

On the practitioner side, well-known macro strategists and asset allocators have openly shared that they personally maintain a mid-single-digit percentage allocation to gold and silver as a permanent hedge. Across these viewpoints, the message is remarkably consistent: for many investors, 5–15% in precious metals is a rational, data-supported range, not a fringe idea.

And then there’s Ray Dalio.

What the Big Names Are Saying

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates—one of the world’s largest hedge funds—has been exceptionally clear about gold’s role.

Dalio has described gold as one of the foundational forms of money and has repeatedly emphasized its role as a hedge when “typical” assets fall. In interviews and public discussions, he has argued that from a strategic asset-allocation perspective, investors might reasonably keep something on the order of 10–15% of their portfolio in gold because it tends to do well when the more conventional parts of the portfolio struggle. In recent years, he has gone so far as to compare the current environment of high debt and financial fragility to a patient at risk of a “financial heart attack,” and suggested that gold is one of the key medications in that emergency kit.

When investors as established as Dalio, along with major asset managers and research groups, converge around that 5–15% range, it gives you a credible, defendable framework to discuss with clients.

The Real Point: Gold & Silver Are a Hedge, Not a Hero

A key message for clients is simple:

Gold and silver are not there to “beat the S&P 500.” They are there so your financial plan still works when the S&P 500 stumbles.

That means when stocks rip higher for years, your metal sleeve may look boring or even disappointing—and that’s fine. But when inflation surprises, currencies wobble, or markets sell off hard, that same 5–15% can suddenly become the part of the portfolio that holds the line. Instead of selling stocks at the worst moment, investors with a precious-metal hedge often have more flexibility and confidence to stick with their long-term strategy.

The Timeless Purchasing Power Story

Gold’s role as money and as a store of value isn’t just theoretical—it shows up in everyday terms over decades.

Dating back to the early 20th century, a single high-quality gold coin had enough purchasing power to buy a good suit, a night out, and still leave change on the table. Fast forward to today, and that same coin—now worth well over $3,000—still buys you a quality suit, a nice evening, and then some.

That’s the point: while paper currencies have been inflated many times over, gold and silver have quietly preserved purchasing power in the background. They may fluctuate in the short run, but over long stretches they tend to hold their own in real-world terms.

Why This Conversation Matters Now

In light of the exponential rise in prices since 2020, persistent inflation pressure, record public debt, and an equity market heavily concentrated in expensive mega-cap tech, now is a particularly important time to revisit the role of precious metals.

Gold has recently surged to record highs as investors sought refuge from inflation, fiscal strain, and geopolitical risk. In certain stretches, it has delivered returns on par with or ahead of major equity indexes, reminding investors that it is still very much relevant in a modern portfolio. Silver has quietly outperformed gold over specific recent intervals, powered by booming demand from solar, EVs, and other green-energy applications, along with ongoing concerns about limited supply.

In other words, gold and silver are doing precisely what they are designed to do: protect wealth when the economic weather turns.

How Precious Metals Actually Help a Real Portfolio

One proven strategy worth considering is the inclusion of physical gold and silver in your portfolio. We may not have talked in great detail about this in the past, but we are starting to see negative economic impacts on the horizon and the timing for this discussion is now.

These tangible assets offer distinct advantages that can fortify your financial security. Gold and silver have historically provided a hedge against inflation, tending to retain their value even as the dollar loses purchasing power. This makes them a meaningful buffer when the cost of living is rising.

They also tend to offer stability during market turbulence. Precious metals often gain value or at least hold up better during periods of economic uncertainty, serving as a safe haven when traditional markets falter. Because they behave differently from stocks and bonds, they improve diversification. In practical terms, that means they can reduce portfolio volatility and strengthen the resilience of your overall financial plan.

In addition, high demand and limited supply support their long-term investment case. Silver is increasingly critical in industrial and green technologies, while gold remains a finite, globally recognized store of value, actively accumulated by investors and central banks. Finally, physical gold and silver offer direct ownership. Unlike paper or purely digital assets, physical metals eliminate counterparty risk—you own a tangible asset that doesn’t depend on a bank, broker, or platform to exist.

Adding these metals to your financial strategy can be a significant step toward mitigating exposure to economic risk, preserving your wealth, and supporting your long-term financial goals.

Why Implementation Matters (And How We Handle It)

Not all precious-metal solutions are created equal. Markups, storage, and security all matter.

I have partnered with a reputable nationwide company that works exclusively with financial advisors to provide clients with a near-wholesale experience in buying physical gold and silver. The goal is simple: to make sure any precious-metal allocation complements—not competes with—your existing financial plan.

This means we size the position thoughtfully within that 5%–15% range rather than guessing or reacting emotionally. We choose an appropriate mix between gold and silver based on your risk profile, time horizon, and objectives. And we coordinate your metals exposure with your equity, bond, and cash allocations so everything works together as one cohesive plan.

Next Steps: Tailoring This to Your Situation

Gold and silver are not a magic bullet. But a disciplined, right-sized allocation has repeatedly proven its value across wars, inflation waves, tech bubbles, and debt cycles.

If you’re the kind of person who wants to break free from short-term market noise, think more like an institutional investor, and protect what you’ve built—not just chase the next hot sector—then this is the right time to talk about a 5%–15% precious-metals sleeve.

Let’s schedule an appointment to explore how physical gold and silver could fit into your specific plan. Contact my office today to secure your place on the calendar. Together, we’ll determine whether a 5%–15% allocation to gold and silver is appropriate for you and how to implement it in a way that truly fortifies your financial future against economic uncertainties.